Brexit Rejexit. May to Exit?

"ttyymmnn" (ttyymmnn) 01/15/2019 at 15:05 • Filed to: None

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Prime Minister Theresa May’s Brexit deal has been rejected by 230 votes - the largest defeat for a sitting government in history.

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For Sweden > ttyymmnn 01/15/2019 at 15:07

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Jeremy gonna try to trade Hard Brexit for Hard Jexit

djmt1 > ttyymmnn 01/15/2019 at 15:09

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Ugh, it’s never gonna end.

ttyymmnn > djmt1 01/15/2019 at 15:11

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It’s gonna end one way or the other on March 29. 

farscythe - makin da cawfee! > ttyymmnn 01/15/2019 at 15:12

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welp... that was always gonna happen

if this means no brexit... hooray

but im sure may or the other tories will finds a way to fuck it all up

ttyymmnn > farscythe - makin da cawfee! 01/15/2019 at 15:14

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Look like it’ll be a no deal Brexit. Which is gonna suck. I fear the UK’s buyer’s remorse is gonna be a bitch on this one.

djmt1 > ttyymmnn 01/15/2019 at 15:14

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an d with that w atch Article 50 get suspended. 

farscythe - makin da cawfee! > ttyymmnn 01/15/2019 at 15:15

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pretty much... but its cool... whenever the uk goes down the shitter they blame others anyway

guess now it will be brussels instead of the french

makes for a change of pace

CarsofFortLangley - Oppo Forever > farscythe - makin da cawfee! 01/15/2019 at 15:15

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You rang?

fintail > ttyymmnn 01/15/2019 at 15:15

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It’s like Murka and Limeyland are in a “hold my beer” contest.

djmt1 > ttyymmnn 01/15/2019 at 15:16

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Parliament will block a “ no deal” scenario come hell or high water. 

For Sweden > ttyymmnn 01/15/2019 at 15:17

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No-deal Brexit with a side of anti-semitism

farscythe - makin da cawfee! > CarsofFortLangley - Oppo Forever 01/15/2019 at 15:18

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i.... have never actually heard of him

(im sure this is partially coz im not in the uk.. and partially coz every other news article is fucking trump)

davesaddiction @ opposite-lock.com > ttyymmnn 01/15/2019 at 15:19

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They’re out, regardless of any deal, on that date? 

ttyymmnn > davesaddiction @ opposite-lock.com 01/15/2019 at 15:20

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That’s my understanding, unless they can get an extension. The EU says no, but a change in government would give them an excuse to give the Brits more time. Frankly, I’ve only really been reading up on it today, and it’s all rather complicated. 

CarsofFortLangley - Oppo Forever > farscythe - makin da cawfee! 01/15/2019 at 15:20

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Consider yourself lucky.

Svend > ttyymmnn 01/15/2019 at 15:21

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It’s a good sign, but it still leaves Brexit on the table.

The PM could go to the E.U. for an extension (which she may not get),

Quickly ask the E.K. if they can sweeten the deal (which she almost totally won’t get),

Go ahead for a no deal Brexit,

Stop Article 50 altogether (which she’s mentioned a couple of times in the last week, may be an option she’s open to),

Having a second referendum (unlikely).

I want this whole nightmare to be over but not going to count all my chickens until they’ve hatched.

In the meantime I’m going to celebrate a partial win.

ttyymmnn > fintail 01/15/2019 at 15:21

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There was this frenzy to go it alone and break all the ties that we made to each other following WWII. But now all we’ve done is make our enemies stronger, embolden nationalists, and make the world less safe. Nice job, folks.

Future next gen S2000 owner > ttyymmnn 01/15/2019 at 15:22

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Oppo Poll!

Would you rather be dealing with Brexit or President Trump?

ttyymmnn > Svend 01/15/2019 at 15:23

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I’m only now starting to grapple with the implications of all this. I’m still a little bit confused on the Irish backstop, since that word means something different across the pond. For those who are still wondering about the “what nows”, Sky News has what looks like a neat little primer on what happens next.

https://news.sky.com/story/seven-scenarios-now-mays-brexit-deal-has-been-rejected-11608320

gmporschenut also a fan of hondas > ttyymmnn 01/15/2019 at 15:23

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The idea of them moving forward on such a major change without a plan is akin to a cult on a suicide pack.

ttyymmnn > Future next gen S2000 owner 01/15/2019 at 15:24

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Are those my only two choices? Because I’d really rather have my Cold War alliances back. 

Vítor > ttyymmnn 01/15/2019 at 15:25

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I think the only good thing to have come out of Brexit is that the whole ordeal have been such a complete and utter shitshow for the UK that other countries that were thinking about leaving the EU (mostly the far right parties in France, Netherlands, Poland, Denmark and Italy) can’t be as supportive of a exist as before

ttyymmnn > gmporschenut also a fan of hondas 01/15/2019 at 15:25

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facw > ttyymmnn 01/15/2019 at 15:26

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I hope that the prospect of a no deal Brexit will be enough to scuttle the whole thing. Given a no-deal Brexit is very far from what voters were promised, it would make sense to have a second vote. They talk about not wanting to betray the people (by which they mean Tory voters, obviously a new vote could only reflect what the people want in general), but this is not what the people voted for, so they either have to use their judgement as representatives and say this is not what the people wanted when they voted to leave, or they should turn it back to the people.

Cé hé sin > ttyymmnn 01/15/2019 at 15:26

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Quite likely not, because a delay is on the cards.

His Stigness > ttyymmnn 01/15/2019 at 15:26

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gmporschenut also a fan of hondas > ttyymmnn 01/15/2019 at 15:26

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s good series with weekly updates

Cé hé sin > ttyymmnn 01/15/2019 at 15:28

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Mrs May may not go anywhere. There isn’t an obvious successor and the no confidence vote tomorrow is quite likely to be defeated. But wait and see. This story is going to run and run.

ttyymmnn > Vítor 01/15/2019 at 15:28

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I hope so. Alliances like NATO and the EU have worked brilliantly to reduce the chances of WWIII. With Brexit and Trumps rejection of traditional alliances , Putin must be having the world’s biggest wet dream. The West won the Cold War, only to throw it all away in the end.

facw > davesaddiction @ opposite-lock.com 01/15/2019 at 15:28

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More or less. The EU can extend the deadline via unanimous consent, but there’s no way they are going to do that just to allow the UK to wring more concessions out of them. The speculation is that if the UK agreed to a second referendum , the EU would probably extend the deadline in that case to make time for the vote, but otherwise March 29th will be the end.

ttyymmnn > Cé hé sin 01/15/2019 at 15:29

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My understanding is that the EU is saying no extension, but a change in UK government would likely alter that position. Right now, though, the EU is holding ALL the cards.

ttyymmnn > gmporschenut also a fan of hondas 01/15/2019 at 15:30

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Thanks.

Spamfeller Loves Nazi Clicks > Future next gen S2000 owner 01/15/2019 at 15:30

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Death. Final answer.

ttyymmnn > Cé hé sin 01/15/2019 at 15:30

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Interesting how, after all these years, NI is still such a thorn in England’s side. 

Cé hé sin > djmt1 01/15/2019 at 15:31

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They’ll also reject everything else though. At the moment the optio ns are:

Leave as per the agreement (shot down in flames)

Leave without an agreement (not going to be passed by P arliament)

Call a second referendum (not going to be passed by Parliament)

I expect the plan will b e tinkered with and presented again in the hope of cross party support, assuming of course the no confidence motion is defeated.

Cé hé sin > ttyymmnn 01/15/2019 at 15:33

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If the EU think there’s some chance of the deal being passed by Parliament, they’ll agree. At the end of the day the EU don’t want a no-deal exit either.

Klaus Schmoll > davesaddiction @ opposite-lock.com 01/15/2019 at 15:36

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They can still unilaterally pull out of Brexit on March 28. No harm no foul. But, there’s just too much pride and interiour sh enanigans involved for that to be a realistic option. BoJo, Rees-Mogg and others are just too keen on watching the world burn in the hope that the fire might somehow help them. Much like T-orange with his shut down, they know that they will be the last ones to suffer, so why care if they fuck it all up for everybody else in the UK, if it might provide even the slightest option to move up in the disruption? The king of a pile of rubble is still king, right?

djmt1 > Cé hé sin 01/15/2019 at 15:36

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an d thus the cycle will continue. The core problem with Brexit is simply what is Brexit. Until we know we will stuck in this pointless cycle of nonsense. We need the second  vote.

Svend > ttyymmnn 01/15/2019 at 15:41

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There is however an option that isn’t on that list, stop Article 50.

Putting it to another vote with such a loss with no amendments is unlikely,

Trying to get a better deal from Europe so late, unlikely,

Delaying Brext, also unlikely as Europe will want to move on from this and put their own plan into effect,

A second referendum is also unlikely at this stage,

Blocking Brexit or cancelling Article 50 if there is no change. Even PM May has said this maybe likely in the current climate rather than having a no-deal Brexit. 

gmporschenut also a fan of hondas > ttyymmnn 01/15/2019 at 15:42

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If the uk leave NI would have to have a border for trade and immigration, almost certainly returning returning to the tensions of the 1980s. An alternative would be to let NI stay the way it is which would separate from the rest of the uk also pissing off folks  

Cé hé sin > farscythe - makin da cawfee! 01/15/2019 at 15:44

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Never? H e wouldn’t like that.

Top trivia: M r and Mrs RM have six children. The sixth is called Sixtus. No, I’m not making it up.

ttyymmnn > Svend 01/15/2019 at 15:44

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Thanks.

farscythe - makin da cawfee! > Cé hé sin 01/15/2019 at 15:47

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ha!

i think i shall refrain from googling him just so i will never know anything about him... and i hope that eats at him... who ever he is

davesaddiction @ opposite-lock.com > ttyymmnn 01/15/2019 at 15:47

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It’s a very interesting thing. The majority of voters in the referendum voted for leaving the EU, but since then, it seems to have become clear that the majority of their citizens don’t want to leave (and some who voted for it have changed their mind). Other than not following through on a vote of their people, what does Parlia ment have to lose by not abiding by this decision (or calling for another vote)? They may be obligated by their laws, sure, but why follow through on something that it’s become clear that most of your country doesn’t want?

We had a family vote, and we decided to kill the dog.

NO, NO! PLEASE don’t kill Sparky. We love him! We were just angry that he ate our cookies!

Sorry, you had your chance.

[BANG]

davesaddiction @ opposite-lock.com > Klaus Schmoll 01/15/2019 at 15:50

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Who’s actually in control right now? Sounds like that’s up in the air... If the new government comes in and decides that it’s a terrible idea, can they just ignore the results of the referendum, or call for a new vote?

davesaddiction @ opposite-lock.com > facw 01/15/2019 at 15:52

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What’s the legal precedent for having a second referendum? Seems like that’s the sane thing to do at this point, but I’m sure everyone who’s happy about leaving the EU is completely opposed to that idea. 

Svend > farscythe - makin da cawfee! 01/15/2019 at 15:56

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I don’t want to get too excited about it just yet.

I’ve just watched the parliamentary vote. There was a call by the House Speaker for four am endments to be added. On being asked by the House Speaker whether the people who put forward the amendments wanted to go ahead with the amendments, three said no. There’s are the people who asked for the amendment to be put in FFS. One put his amendment to vote, they voted and 24 voted for the amendment and 600 voted against it. Doh.

There’s still quite a bit that can happen, some or most less likely than others. 

SnapUndersteer, Italian Spiderman > ttyymmnn 01/15/2019 at 15:56

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Poor Theresa.... she’s getting pounded from every angle. I do not envy her political position

Svend > farscythe - makin da cawfee! 01/15/2019 at 15:57

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Doesn’t everyone, doesn’t every country? 

Klaus Schmoll > davesaddiction @ opposite-lock.com 01/15/2019 at 15:58

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That sorry excuse for a Tory leader still thinks/says that he has to deliver on Brexit. So who knows.

Maybe they just need to be kicked out hard to come back begging. NoBrexit might just spur on some really ugly racist stuff. I dunno...

Svend > farscythe - makin da cawfee! 01/15/2019 at 15:59

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Rees Mogg is so out of touch, he’s an idiot.

Don’t taint you mind for a second listening to him. 

facw > davesaddiction @ opposite-lock.com 01/15/2019 at 16:00

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It would be entirely legal to hold a referendum. Of course governing by referendum is not the way the UK government is supposed to work, the MPs are supposed to be selected by the voters and then act on their behalf. May is resisting it because while the polling shows the country would vote remain in a second vote (nb: the polling also showed remain in the fist vote), if Brexit were overturned, it would mostly voters from her party who’d have their opinions overruled (Brexit is not a party-line vote, but it was more popular with Tories).

Svend > Cé hé sin 01/15/2019 at 16:01

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Even the PM has tossed the notion of cancelling Brexit, revoking Article 50 if the deal doesn’t go through.   

ttyymmnn > gmporschenut also a fan of hondas 01/15/2019 at 16:03

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Yeah, I get all that, I’m just wondering why they call it a backstop. I think it means that there’s no other option. It’s ironic to me that, after all these years, NI remains a thorn in the UK’s side.

ttyymmnn > davesaddiction @ opposite-lock.com 01/15/2019 at 16:05

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As somebody else pointed out, UK voters opted for a “deal” Brexit. With no deal, this isn’t what they voted for and, presumably, you could hold another vote on those grounds. I think they should have another vote, but I don’t live there. I’m old fashioned, and I’d like to see things remain the way they are.

ttyymmnn > SnapUndersteer, Italian Spiderman 01/15/2019 at 16:07

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Neither do I. She did her best (I guess) , and perhaps it’s time for her to step aside gracefully. Besides, if everything does go into the shitter, she can say that she tried and that it didn’t happen on her watch.

facw > SnapUndersteer, Italian Spiderman 01/15/2019 at 16:10

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I think she messed up badly. The referendum voters were sold a lie . When it became obvious she wasn’t going to be able to get anything close to that and the pro-Brexit ministers she appointed resigned in protest, she should have crushed them for failing to deliver what they promised. At that point she might have been able to call the whole thing an unworkable fraud and abandon it. Trying to instead thread the needle with a deal that gets a small portion of the independence Brexiters wanted, while still leaving significant responsibilities to Brussels was never going to work. Killing it might have killed her career, but her career is dead anyway because she tried this compromise that satisfies no one, it’s just a question of whether or not she’ll tack on destroying the UK economy to her legacy before she goes.

Svend > ttyymmnn 01/15/2019 at 16:12

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It’s not so much a thorn, it’s taken decades to get to this level of peace in the region. The issue with the border risks upsetting the Good Friday Agreement, destroying any peace between the protestant and catholic areas.

Police stations looked like fortresses, The RUC (Royal Ulster Constabulary) drove around in bullet proof Land Rovers. The British army patrolled the streets, etc...

I was over there for just over three months, it was a very tense place to be.

So if we can avoid rocking the boat, we should do it. 

farscythe - makin da cawfee! > Svend 01/15/2019 at 16:13

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oh i know.... but heres to hoping right

farscythe - makin da cawfee! > Svend 01/15/2019 at 16:14

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roger that i wont

hell i barely listen to people i do know and respect :)

fintail > ttyymmnn 01/15/2019 at 16:17

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Butterymales

Svend > farscythe - makin da cawfee! 01/15/2019 at 16:26

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I can only celebrate the battles at this moment and hope to win the war.

But yes, here’s hoping. 

ttyymmnn > Svend 01/15/2019 at 16:28

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I’ve actually done a fair bit of reading about the Northern Ireland situation. Unless Jesus returns, I don’t see it ever getting resolved. But how, exactly, does a change in border status affect the Good Friday Accords?

Svend > SnapUndersteer, Italian Spiderman 01/15/2019 at 16:33

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Corbyn wants to table a vote of no confidence.

Corbyn (the opposition leader) put in a motion for a vote of no confidence in government on the 17 th of December, only to be m et on the 18th with the SN P, to propose a motion of no confide nce in the opposition to Corbyn’s motion of no confide nce in government.

Svend > ttyymmnn 01/15/2019 at 16:51

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It’s a very fragile quite.

If a hard border gets put back up between Northern Ireland and Ireland it would create tensions in that families have mixed freely across the border for many years in work, trade and family life. To avoid a hard border between Northern Ireland and Ireland they looked at putting the border do wn the Irish Sea, meaning while Northern Ireland remained part of the U.K. it would stay in the customs union with the E.U. meaning trade tariffs between the U.K. and the E.U. would also apply to Northern Ireland and the U.K. Either option would upset one of the two sides in different ways and likely cause great issues.

Politically things have got tense in Northern Ireland over the years, but in the most part it’s just been the politicians.

There are certain things you don’t disturb and the open border is s een as one of the big parts of the Good Friday A greement on governance.

There’s a lot more to it, but I can’t stress the fragile nature of things. 

facw > Svend 01/15/2019 at 17:03

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Have to be careful about saying “table” around Americans (not sure about Italian Spidermen), it means sort of the opposite in US English.

Svend > facw 01/15/2019 at 17:08

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You’ve lost me?

‘ Table means the opposite in US English?’ 

davesaddiction @ opposite-lock.com > Klaus Schmoll 01/15/2019 at 17:13

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I think many have the same fears over here about a Trump impeachment/removal. 

davesaddiction @ opposite-lock.com > facw 01/15/2019 at 17:16

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Sounds like May won’t be PM for much longer. 

nj959 > Svend 01/15/2019 at 17:24

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In the US, “to table” something means to set it aside for later. So if I were to say “Let’s table this discussion”, that would mean something along the lines of “Let’s set this aside for now and deal with it later”.

facw > davesaddiction @ opposite-lock.com 01/15/2019 at 17:24

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Right now it seems most likely she win the no-confidence vote tomorrow, in which case there won’t be much way to get rid of her unless she wants to step down.

davesaddiction @ opposite-lock.com > facw 01/15/2019 at 17:27

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Good times. 

Svend > nj959 01/15/2019 at 17:58

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I guess not that far off. Here it’s more, we need to do this, but need to arrange when. 

415s30 W123TSXWaggoIIIIIIo ( •_•))°) > ttyymmnn 01/15/2019 at 18:46

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Nice try UK, we are still winning at losing with Drumpf the Earl of Tantrum. 

lurkerbynature > ttyymmnn 01/15/2019 at 19:10

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The Good Friday Agreement was kind of a miracle of negotiation, and part of that miracle is predicated on both the UK and Ireland being in the EU, which facilitated the ability to have a supranational identity. When you have people in NI who strongly identify as Irish and people in NI who strongly identify as British, how do you facilitate both? During the Troubles, having a hard border meant that those who identified as Irish were literally violently cut off from their national identity.

One of the genius things about the GFA is that it allows for people in NI to claim either or both identity. And that was logistically doable as well, because you could do away with more than the most symbolic signifier of border (paint color changes for road markings, speed signs go mph/kph). Because both the UK and Ireland were part of the EU, one of the pillars of which is the four freedoms, we were guaranteed that there was a common market and regulatory alignment to allow for free movement of people, goods, services, and capital. Which means you can have an invisible border because you don’t have to worry about customs and immigration controls (NB: Ireland kept with the UK in staying out of the Schengen zone, so there are immigration checks going into the Schengen area but not between UK/IE.)

So, the problem:

That freedom of movement is guaranteed in the GFA, because it keeps the peace and means that soldiers aren’t blowing up roads. That people on business trips down the road aren’t being searched and their cars dismantled and left in pieces.

The UK leaving the EU wants to leave the common market and diverge from EU regulatory alignment.

If there isn’t regulatory alignment, there needs to be controls around movement. Otherwise, you’re inviting smuggling, and all kinds of lawless behavior. And blowing up roads and dismantled cars. (On a pure logistical side, the border is pretty much impossible to “control”)

Simple logical problem. Two of these three things are mutually exclusive.

The backstop is a guarantee that until something else is figured out, NI will remain in regulatory alignment with the EU in order to keep faith with its obligations under the GFA.

You can’t put a time limit on until we figure out another solution to a logical impossibility . There are solutions . . . the An EEA style close relationship with close enough regulatory alignment , a special status for NI, NI having a border poll, would be some of them.  The EU isn’t going to dictate that, just say “until you get your shit together, you stick by the international treaty you signed”.

ttyymmnn > lurkerbynature 01/15/2019 at 20:13

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That’s a great explanation, thanks. I’ve been somewhat fascinated, though that’s not the best word, with the NI situation since I was a kid in the 70s. As an armchair military historian, I remember looking at books of military history that included The Troubles, and photo captioned, “The charge of the dreaded RUC.” And I’ve always been enamored of traditional Irish music. It’s hard to imagine living in such a situation, though of course there are parallels in American history with oppressed groups of people. I desperately hope that they can work something out. We are faced with a rising, but hopefully soon ebbing, tide of nationalism in the world. Americans tend to mistake it for patriotism, but they are two distinctly different things. It seemed to me that the EU, while difficult for some to take, helped control those nationalistic tendencies, and helped keep peace. According to your explanation, it certainly seemed to help in NI. Fingers crossed.

Thanks again.

gmporschenut also a fan of hondas > SnapUndersteer, Italian Spiderman 01/15/2019 at 20:50

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gmporschenut also a fan of hondas > Cé hé sin 01/15/2019 at 21:06

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I think it was The Economist I was reading procedure-wise, the referendum would have to have been called  3 months ago, so there isn’t even time to legitimately perform one, as the questions have to be proposed, reviewed and voted on.  

pip bip - choose Corrour > ttyymmnn 01/16/2019 at 04:34

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bring on a hard Brexit!

gmporschenut also a fan of hondas > ttyymmnn 02/10/2019 at 20:18

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Backstop is a cricket position for when you have a shitty batter/hittter. Baseball would be a catcher.